From a statistical standpoint, Caribbean Stud is a negative expectation game. Unlike blackjack, there is no strategy that will overcome the house edge and make the game profitable for the player. Sure, you can simply wait until the progressive meter gets very, very high, but in most Poker Casino Ratings the jackpot will have to exceed half a million dollars for the overall player expectation to become positive. So far this has never happened, but when and if it does, you will find it very difficult to get a seat at a Caribbean Stud table. You must use some reasonable strategy when playing this game or you will deplete your bankroll very quickly. The Caribbean Stud poker player has three basic decisions to make: (1) How much money to ante, (2) whether or not to place the $1 progressive bet, and (3) whether to call (bet double the ante) or fold (lose the ante). Each of these three choices will have a major effect on how fast you will lose your money. THE ANTE The best approach in Caribbean Stud is to risk as little money as possible. Try to find a $5 table and only place the minimum bet. There is more than one reason for this strong recommendation. Being a negative expectation game, the heavier you bet, the more you will lose (barring a lucky streak). If this isn’t enough to convince you, there is a second reason. The big draw for most people who play Caribbean Stud is the progressive jackpot. And I agree that when the jackpot gets into the hundreds of thousands of dollars, it is a good time to invest in the $1 progressive bet. There is, however, an important point to keep in mind: The pro grassier bonus and jackpot payoffs are exactly the same whether you placed a $5 ante or a $25 ante. Why risk more money than you need to when the chance of making a good hand and the payoff for that hand have no bearing on the amount that you bet? You also have to keep in mind when you ante, that you can’t win anything unless you also place the call bet. That means a $5 ante turns into a $15 investment and a $25 ante turns into a $75 investment—per hand. You will fold your hand about half of the time, and each time you fold, you will lose your ante. It is better to lose $5 than to lose $25. Finally, by placing a minimum ante bet, there is no chance that you will run up against the bonus payout limit. You wouldn’t want to place a large bet, get a hot hand, and then be shortchanged on the payout. That would be a cruel blow. THE PROGRESSIVE JACKPOT One of the lures in Caribbean Stud is the possibility of getting a royal flush and winning the progressive jackpot, or winning lesser amounts for certain other hands. Entering the progressive jackpot pool is entirely optional; however, if you do not put up the dollar, you will have no chance of winning the progressive jackpot or one of the progressive bonuses. The progressive bonuses and the progressive jackpot pay off whether or not the dealer’s hand is qualified, so long as you placed $1 in the progressive slot at the start of the hand and you don’t fold. If your hand is a flush, full house, or four-of-a-kind, you are paid a progressive bonus even if the dealer has a better hand. The same is true for a royal flush or a straight flush. Investing in the progressive pool is only worthwhile when the progressive meter gets quite high. Following are examples of paytables showing the minimum jackpot needed for a positive expectation of winning. This positive expectation only applies to the progressive bonus or jackpot, not to the entire game. To overcome the house edge on the basic game, the progressive jackpot would have to reach levels that have never before been attained. Columns I to 3: Found in most Las Vegas casinos. Column 4: Found in Atlantic City and Mississippi. The calculations for the progressive break-even points were based on a $1 side bet. When you visit the casinos, you will see that the Caribbean Stud progressive meters don’t get anywhere near the break-even points. The exact house edge for the progressive side bet (alone) depends on the amount of the jackpot, but it typically falls in the range of 25% to 30%.
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